Why Johnson should win it ... and why he may not

Kansas Speedway has at times proven the most pivotal event in the Chase. Two years ago, NASCAR's decision to restart the race after a thunderstorm delay completely shook up the points -- Tony Stewart went from holding a big lead to a big crash and a big deficit, while Jimmie Johnson moved to the top of the standings to stay. Last year's race provided Johnson with the first of what would be three victories in the playoff, and served as a springboard to a record-tying third consecutive championship.

Seven? No way

Jimmie Johnson has three Cup titles, but he doesn't think he will ever reach Richard Petty or Dale Earnhardt's seven.

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A similar opportunity presented itself Sunday, when Johnson had a fleeting chance to take control of this year's Chase and effectively reduce the championship hunt to himself and a few select contenders.

With 120 laps remaining, the No. 48 car was out front and cruising. Johnson had led 40 of the previous 44 laps, and it was beginning to look like a trademark effort by Chad Knaus and company -- gradually make the car better, and then blow everyone away at the end. Even more telling were the live standings: at the time, Johnson was the leader, and only three others were within 100 points of him. The Sunflower State, it seemed as the circuits wound down, would once again be the place where the No. 48 team made the statement that everyone else was chasing them.

And yet, it didn't happen. Elliott Sadler spun to bring out a caution, and the result was chaos -- led by Greg Biffle, eight drivers chose to gamble for track position by putting on only two tires. Johnson took the standard four, restarted in ninth place, and was never really a factor again. He finished a respectable, if rather un-Johnson-like, ninth. He lost eight points to leader Mark Martin, and is 18 behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammate heading to his native Southern California this weekend.

That turn of events at Kansas provides a small-scale glimpse as to why Johnson remains the favorite to win this Chase ... and why that might not happen. Every week, the No. 48 team brings cars to the race track that are a legitimate threat to win. Nobody is better than Knaus at manipulating those small areas of the current vehicle that remain open to manipulation. From the simple standpoint of car and driver, the very essence of NASCAR racing, there is not a better program on the circuit. If the championship is reduced to those two not-insignificant variables, then everyone else is racing for second place. (Continued)